By Dragana Avramov, Miroslava Maskova
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Additional resources for Active Ageing in Europe Volume 1 (Population Studies) (Vol 41)
The projections cover the 50-year period from 2000 to 2050. 2. In the long run up to the year 2050 the total fertility rate is presupposed to increase in all of the countries of the region with the exception of Turkey and Albania. The fertility levels, however, are not assumed to cross over the replacement level. Total fertility rate is assumed to reach the fertility of the cohort of women born in the early 1960s or, if that information is lacking, to reach 1,7 children per woman if current fertility is below 1,5 children per woman or 1,9 children per woman if current fertility is equal or higher than 1,5 children per woman.
The lower shares of the elderly in the former group are mainly explicable by a later completion of demographic transition in most of the countries in this part of Europe and, more pronouncedly, by different fertility and mortality trends in the second half of the 20th century, especially during the last three decades. In the 1960s, a second demographic transition started in northern and western European countries and a remarkable drop in fertility occurred to below replacement levels. At the same time mortality at older ages started gradually to decline more rapidly.
The numbers of children under the age of 15 as well as the population of working age (15-64) are expected to decrease in this period (by 30 %, 24 % respectively) as a consequence of the long-term trend of fertility rates remaining below replacement levels. The numerical growth of the elderly will protect the total population from deeper population decrease due to low fertility levels. This development will be reflected in the relative weights of the broad age groups. During the next 50 years the proportion of elderly in the total population will double from the current 14 % to almost 28 %.
Active Ageing in Europe Volume 1 (Population Studies) (Vol 41) by Dragana Avramov, Miroslava Maskova